Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
